Reported Doctored Video of Nigerian President Bola Tinubu Claims Naira Will Be Replaced by U.S. Dollar

A reported viral video circulated in Nigeria in the late summer and early fall of 2023 falsely claiming that President Bola Tinubu announced plans to replace the naira with the U.S. dollar. The video, reportedly styled as a news segment from Arise News, was allegedly digitally altered using AI-generated audio and lip-sync manipulation. Arise News publicly denounced the clip as a deepfake, and no legitimate media sources corroborated the claim. The video appeared amid public anxiety over Nigeria's ongoing currency crisis.

Risk classification

• Primary risk domain: 4 Malicious actors
• Primary risk subdomain: 4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale

The incident involved the deliberate creation and viral dissemination of a political deepfake designed to manipulate public opinion and spread disinformation regarding national currency policy.

Additional risk subdomains

• 3.1 False or misleading information: The deepfake video generated and spread highly realistic false information about national currency policy to the public.

Causal factors

• Entity: Human
• Intent: Intentional
• Timing: Post-deployment

The incident was caused by human actors intentionally using deployed AI generation tools to create and spread a deceptive deepfake video.

EU AI Act risk tier

• Risk tier: 3 Limited Risk

Risk Level 3. Limited Risk: The system is used to generate AI-generated content such as deepfakes, which are subject to transparency obligations under the EU AI Act.

AI system and alleged parties

• AI system: None named
• AI purpose: Deepfake Video Generation; Voice Generation
• Behaviour type: Tool
• Alleged developer: Unknown voice cloning technology developers, Unknown deepfake technology developers
• Alleged deployer: Unknown actors
• Alleged harmed parties: Truth, National security and intelligence stakeholders, Media integrity, General public of Nigeria, General public, Epistemic integrity, Bola Tinubu

Harm severity

Severity ratings are based on this scale.

Highest direct severity in any category: Minor. Severity is scored from Negligible to Catastrophic in each harm category, for harm the reports describe as caused directly or indirectly by the AI system.

• Physical: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Infrastructure: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Property: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Financial: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Environmental: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Malicious content: direct Minor, indirect Negligible
• Differential treatment: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Civil rights: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Democracy: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Privacy: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Psychological: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Epistemic: direct Minor, indirect Negligible
• Child sexual exploitation and abuse: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible

Malicious content

Reported: Yes, the report describes a deepfake video mimicking a news anchor and the President.

Directly caused: The creation and circulation of a deepfake video on Facebook falsely claiming the naira would be replaced by the dollar.

Inferred additional harm: It is likely that thousands of Facebook users were exposed to this malicious synthetic content.

Epistemic

Reported: Yes, the report explicitly describes a false claim circulating on Facebook that the President plans to replace the naira with the dollar.

Directly caused: A deepfake video mimicking Arise News and President Tinubu misled social media users into believing the national currency would be abolished.

Inferred additional harm: Widespread confusion among the Nigerian public regarding the status of their national currency, potentially exacerbating the existing currency crisis.

People affected

• Occurrences reported: 1
• People reportedly harmed: 2

Potential causes

Technology

• Deepfake Synthesis Technology: AI algorithms enabled realistic voice and video manipulation of public figures.
• Flawed Lip-Sync Generation: The AI tool produced out-of-sync lip movements, indicating manipulation.

Data Inputs

• Unauthorised Source Video Use: Real broadcast footage of Arise News was used as input for the deepfake.

Human Factors

• Malicious Creation: Fake news peddlers intentionally used AI to create deceptive content.
• Credulous Sharing by Users: Social media users shared the doctored video without verifying facts.

Process and Methods

• Weak Social Media Moderation: Facebook failed to detect and flag the deepfake video before it went viral.

Regulatory Environment

• Absence of AI Media Laws: Lack of regulatory frameworks to deter the creation of political deepfakes.

Information quality

• Classification confidence: High
• Reason for confidence: The report clearly details the nature of the deepfake, the platforms where it circulated, and the official disclaimers and debunking efforts. The lack of the specific AI tool name does not impede classification.
• Ambiguities identified: The specific AI model or platform used to generate the deepfake is not identified.
• Alternative interpretations: None.

A viral deepfake video in Nigeria falsely depicted President Tinubu announcing the replacement of the national currency (naira) with the U.S. dollar. While the incident targeted high-level government decision-making and public economic trust during a sensitive period, it was quickly debunked with no reported physical, financial, or operational national security impacts.

• Overall national security impact: Minor
• Scope: Single nation
• Primary target: Nigeria
• Alleged perpetrator: Unknown

Threat characteristics

• Imminence: Long-term. The specific incident is resolved, representing an ongoing strategic concern regarding synthetic media.
• Autonomy: Human-controlled. The AI tools were used directly by human creators to generate specific deceptive content.
• Novelty: Established threat. Deepfakes targeting political figures and spreading disinformation are an established threat globally.

Impact by dimension

• Physical security: Negligible. No kinetic threats, physical injuries, or critical infrastructure impacts were reported or occurred.
• Information security: Minor. AI-enabled disinformation targeted the President and a news outlet, but it was quickly debunked and had limited lasting impact.
• Sovereignty: Minor. The deepfake falsely claimed the President would replace the national currency, targeting government decision-making, but did not disrupt core operations.
• Economic security: Minor. The incident targeted public trust in the national currency during an economic crisis, but did not result in reported financial system disruption.
• Societal stability: Minor. The video risked exacerbating public anxiety during an ongoing currency crisis, but did not lead to civil unrest or systematic rights violations.