Image Purporting to Show President Paul Kagame of Rwanda in M23 Uniform Reportedly AI-Generated

An image circulating on social media appeared to show Rwandan President Paul Kagame wearing a military uniform with an M23 label, referencing the rebel group active in eastern DRC. Fact-checking organization PesaCheck found no credible sources supporting the image and used AI-detection tools to determine it was likely AI-generated. The image was reportedly used to imply Kagame's affiliation with M23 amid ongoing regional tensions and allegations of Rwandan support for the group.

Risk classification

• Primary risk domain: 4 Malicious actors
• Primary risk subdomain: 4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale

The deepfake image of President Kagame was created and spread to conduct a targeted political disinformation campaign during an active conflict, aiming to manipulate public opinion and regional political dynamics.

Additional risk subdomains

• 3.1 False or misleading information: The AI-generated image represents a discrete piece of false media designed to mislead viewers about the President's involvement with a rebel group.

Causal factors

• Entity: Human
• Intent: Intentional
• Timing: Post-deployment

The deepfake was intentionally created and circulated by human actors using a deployed AI image generation tool to spread political misinformation.

EU AI Act risk tier

• Risk tier: 3 Limited Risk

Risk Level 3: Limited Risk. The incident involves AI-generated content (a deepfake of President Kagame), which falls under the category of systems requiring transparency obligations to ensure users are aware the content is synthetic.

AI system and alleged parties

• AI system: Hive Moderation (Hive)
• AI purpose: Deepfake Image Generation; Image Verification
• Behaviour type: Tool
• Alleged developer: Unknown deepfake technology developers
• Alleged deployer: Unknown disinformation actors, Unknown disinformation actor targeting Paul Kagame
• Alleged harmed parties: Truth, Regional peacebuilding efforts in the African Great Lakes region, Paul Kagame, National security and intelligence stakeholders, Government of Rwanda, General public of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, General public of Rwanda, General public, Epistemic integrity

Harm severity

Severity ratings are based on this scale.

Highest direct severity in any category: Minor. Severity is scored from Negligible to Catastrophic in each harm category, for harm the reports describe as caused directly or indirectly by the AI system.

• Physical: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Infrastructure: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Property: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Financial: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Environmental: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Malicious content: direct Minor, indirect Negligible
• Differential treatment: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Civil rights: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Democracy: direct Negligible, indirect Minor
• Privacy: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Psychological: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Epistemic: direct Minor, indirect Minor
• Child sexual exploitation and abuse: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible

Malicious content

Reported: The report explicitly describes the creation and spread of a deepfake image on social media platforms like X.

Directly caused: The creation of a deepfake image of President Kagame wearing an M23 rebel uniform to falsely link him to the rebel group.

Inferred additional harm: It is highly likely that the deepfake reached thousands of social media users, exposing them to politically malicious synthetic content before it was debunked.

Democracy

Reported: The report does not explicitly describe the erosion of democratic norms, but notes the deepfake targeted a head of state during a sensitive regional conflict.

Indirectly caused: The deepfake could undermine trust in official government communications and complicate diplomatic efforts to resolve the regional conflict.

Inferred additional harm: The propagation of deepfakes of heads of state during active military conflicts poses a significant risk of destabilizing regional governance and eroding trust in official communications.

Epistemic

Reported: The report explicitly describes epistemic harm through the circulation of a fake photo of President Kagame to mislead the public.

Directly caused: The generation of a highly realistic deepfake image that falsely depicts the President in rebel military attire.

Indirectly caused: The spread of this image on social media platforms, leading to potential confusion and false beliefs among the public regarding Rwanda's involvement with the M23 rebels.

Inferred additional harm: The incident contributes to the broader erosion of shared reality and trust in visual evidence on social media, making it harder for citizens to distinguish real news from synthetic propaganda.

People affected

• Occurrences reported: 1
• People reportedly harmed: 1

Potential causes

Technology

• AI Deepfake Generation: AI tools used to generate realistic fake image of President Kagame.
• Visual Rendering Artifacts: Polished face, disoriented eyes, and misaligned text indicate AI creation.

Human Factors

• Unverified Content Sharing: Users on social media platforms sharing fake images without verification.

Process and Methods

• Delayed Misinformation Detection: Platforms rely on manual third-party fact-checking after content goes viral.

Information quality

• Classification confidence: High
• Reason for confidence: The report clearly details the nature of the deepfake, the platforms where it circulated, and the fact-checking process used to debunk it. There is no ambiguity about the falsity of the image or the political context of the M23 rebel conflict.
• Ambiguities identified: The specific AI model used to generate the deepfake is not identified in the report.
• Alternative interpretations: None. The image is demonstrably a deepfake intended to mislead.

An AI-generated deepfake depicting Rwandan President Paul Kagame in an M23 rebel uniform was circulated during active regional conflict. Although quickly debunked, the incident highlights the substantial threat of synthetic media being used in information warfare to manipulate geopolitical narratives and inflame regional tensions.

• Overall national security impact: Substantial
• Scope: Multiple nations
• Primary target: Rwanda
• Other affected: Democratic Republic of the Congo
• Alleged perpetrator: Unknown

Threat characteristics

• Imminence: Long-term. The deepfake was quickly debunked, shifting the threat to an ongoing strategic concern regarding synthetic media in regional conflicts.
• Autonomy: Human-controlled. The deepfake was generated and intentionally circulated by human actors using AI tools as a capability, with no autonomous execution by the AI system.
• Novelty: Established threat. The creation and dissemination of political deepfakes to spread disinformation during conflicts is an established threat with numerous prior examples.

Impact by dimension

• Physical security: Negligible. The incident involved a digital image on social media with no physical damage, kinetic targeting, or disruption to critical infrastructure.
• Information security: Substantial. The deepfake targeted a head of state during an active conflict to falsely link him to a rebel group, representing a substantial, politically sensitive disinformation operation.
• Sovereignty: Minor. While targeting a head of state, the incident did not directly compromise core government decision-making, electoral systems, or sovereign control.
• Economic security: Negligible. No financial systems, strategic technologies, or economic supply chains were affected by the circulation of the deepfake.
• Societal stability: Minor. The image had the potential to inflame regional tensions during a conflict, but there is no evidence of widespread civil unrest or systematic human rights violations directly resulting from it.