Purported AI-Generated Video Depicting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Using Drugs Shared by Rodrigo Duterte Supporters and Amplified by China-Linked Spamouflage

A purported deepfake video depicting Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. using drugs was released by Rodrigo Duterte ally Claire "Maharlika" Contreras at a Maisug rally in Los Angeles. The clip was reportedly timed to discredit Marcos ahead of his State of the Nation Address. Philippine authorities reportedly confirmed it was fake. The video was allegedly amplified by China's Spamouflage network via coordinated inauthentic accounts on X and YouTube.

Risk classification

• Primary risk domain: 4 Malicious actors
• Primary risk subdomain: 4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale

The deepfake video was deployed as part of a coordinated political disinformation campaign aimed at manipulating public opinion and destabilizing the government.

Additional risk subdomains

• 3.1 False or misleading information: The AI system was used to generate highly realistic but entirely false video and audio content depicting the President.

Causal factors

• Entity: Human
• Intent: Intentional
• Timing: Post-deployment

The incident was caused by political opponents intentionally creating and distributing a deepfake video to destabilize the administration.

EU AI Act risk tier

• Risk tier: 3 Limited Risk

Risk Level 3: Limited Risk. The report describes the use of AI-generated content (deepfakes), which falls under the Limited Risk category of the EU AI Act and is subject to transparency obligations.

AI system and alleged parties

• AI system: None named
• AI purpose: Deepfake Video Generation; Voice Generation
• Behaviour type: Tool
• Alleged developer: Unknown deepfake technology developers
• Alleged deployer: Spamouflage, Rodrigo Duterte supporters, Government of China, Claire Contreras
• Alleged harmed parties: Philippines-China relations, National security and intelligence stakeholders, Government of the Philippines, General public of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., Epistemic integrity

Harm severity

Severity ratings are based on this scale.

Highest direct severity in any category: Minor. Severity is scored from Negligible to Catastrophic in each harm category, for harm the reports describe as caused directly or indirectly by the AI system.

• Physical: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Infrastructure: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Property: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Financial: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Environmental: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Malicious content: direct Minor, indirect Minor
• Differential treatment: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Civil rights: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Democracy: direct Minor, indirect Minor
• Privacy: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Psychological: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Epistemic: direct Minor, indirect Minor
• Child sexual exploitation and abuse: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible

Malicious content

Reported: The report explicitly describes the creation and spread of malicious deepfake content designed to defame the President.

Directly caused: A deepfake video falsely depicting the President using drugs was created and went viral online.

Indirectly caused: An earlier audio deepfake was circulated falsely claiming the President ordered military action against China.

Democracy

Reported: The report explicitly describes the erosion of democratic norms, noting the video was a malicious attempt to destabilize the administration and weaken constitutional institutions.

Directly caused: The deepfake was released right before the State of the Nation Address to undermine the President's credibility and political stability.

Indirectly caused: The incident has raised widespread concern over the integrity of upcoming democratic elections and the potential for AI to mislead voters.

Epistemic

Reported: The report explicitly describes epistemic harm through the generation of highly convincing fake video and audio recordings that mislead the public.

Directly caused: The deepfake video fabricated evidence of drug use by the President, corrupting the public information ecosystem.

Indirectly caused: The audio deepfake fabricated military directives, creating false beliefs about potential conflict with China.

People affected

• Occurrences reported: 1
• People reportedly harmed: 1
• People reportedly exposed: 1000000

Potential causes

Management

• Inadequate Proactive Risk Assessment: Government was unprepared for deepfakes targeting high-profile officials.

Technology

• Deepfake Generation Technology: Advanced AI tools allowed creation of convincing fake video and audio.
• Lagging Cyber Infrastructure: Philippine infrastructure is still catching up to handle advanced AI threats.

Data Inputs

• Publicly Available Media Data: Abundant public video and audio of the President enabled AI model training.

Human Factors

• Low Public Digital Literacy: Audience with little knowledge is easily persuaded by convincing deepfakes.
• Malicious Political Motivation: Duterte supporters sought to destabilize the current administration.

Process and Methods

• Weak Systemic Coordination: Government structures lack coordinated response to rapid AI disinformation.
• Delayed Forensic Verification: Government had to rely on manual physical comparison to prove video was fake.

Regulatory Environment

• Absence of Specific AI Regulation: Existing Cybercrime Act of 2012 lacks targeted rules for deepfakes.
• Insufficient Election Guidelines: Election commission is only just drafting guidelines for AI use in campaigns.

Information quality

• Classification confidence: High
• Reason for confidence: The reports provide clear, detailed, and consistent accounts of the deepfake incident, the political context, and the official government response. Forensic details proving the video was fake are explicitly described.
• Ambiguities identified: The specific AI models or software tools used to generate the deepfake video and audio are not identified.

Political opponents targeted Philippine President Marcos Jr. with a highly realistic deepfake video depicting drug use, timed to destabilize the government before a major national address. This incident highlights the growing threat of AI-enabled information warfare to sovereign government operations and democratic integrity, prompting immediate legislative and regulatory reactions.

• Overall national security impact: Substantial
• Scope: Single nation
• Primary target: Philippines
• Alleged perpetrator: Maisug group political opponents

Threat characteristics

• Imminence: Near-term. The immediate video threat was mitigated, but the ongoing risk of political destabilization remains active ahead of the May 2025 midterm elections.
• Autonomy: Human-controlled. The AI system was utilized strictly as a generative tool by human actors to create synthetic media, with no autonomous decision-making.
• Novelty: Evolved capability. While political deepfakes are an established threat, this incident represents an evolved capability in terms of realistic execution and strategic timing.

Impact by dimension

• Physical security: Negligible. No physical threat, kinetic attacks, or critical infrastructure manipulation were reported in connection with this incident.
• Information security: Substantial. The incident involved a highly coordinated AI-generated disinformation campaign targeting the President to degrade public trust and manipulate national narratives.
• Sovereignty: Substantial. The deepfake was strategically timed before the State of the Nation Address to undermine executive credibility and destabilize government operations.
• Economic security: Negligible. No direct threats to economic stability, financial systems, or strategic technological infrastructure were identified.
• Societal stability: Minor. The campaign threatened social cohesion and trust in democratic processes, though it did not result in widespread civil unrest.