Purported Republican AI Ad Reportedly Depicts Dystopian Future After Biden Reelection Announcement

After Joe Biden announced his 2024 reelection bid, the Republican National Committee reportedly released an attack ad that included purportedly AI-generated images portraying a dystopian future for the United States. Even with a brief disclaimer, the ad's fabricated scenes purportedly introduced false information into the political environment and created a misleading visual frame around an active electoral process.

Risk classification

• Primary risk domain: 4 Malicious actors
• Primary risk subdomain: 4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale

The RNC used AI-generated imagery to conduct a political campaign ad aimed at influencing public opinion and the political process at scale.

Additional risk subdomains

• 3.1 False or misleading information: The ad generates synthetic, misleading depictions of future national crises that could mislead voters into believing they represent real or highly probable events.

Causal factors

• Entity: Human
• Intent: Intentional
• Timing: Post-deployment

The incident was caused by the RNC's intentional decision to generate and publish AI-generated images in a political campaign ad using post-deployment AI tools.

EU AI Act risk tier

• Risk tier: 3 Limited Risk

Limited Risk: The report describes the use of AI-generated content and deepfakes, which are subject to transparency obligations under the EU AI Act to ensure users are informed of their synthetic nature.

AI system and alleged parties

• AI system: unspecified
• AI purpose: Image Generation; Deepfake Image Generation
• Behaviour type: Tool
• Alleged developer: Unknown deepfake technology developers, Unknown AI image generator developer
• Alleged deployer: Republican National Committee (RNC)
• Alleged harmed parties: Truth, Joe Biden, General public of the United States, General public, Epistemic integrity, Electoral integrity, Democratic Party, Democracy

Harm severity

Highest direct severity in any category: Substantial. Severity is scored from Negligible to Catastrophic in each harm category, for harm the reports describe as caused directly or indirectly by the AI system.

• Physical: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Infrastructure: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Property: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Financial: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Environmental: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Malicious content: direct Minor, indirect Negligible
• Differential treatment: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Civil rights: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Democracy: direct Minor, indirect Minor
• Privacy: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Psychological: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Epistemic: direct Minor, indirect Negligible
• Child sexual exploitation and abuse: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible

Malicious content

Reported: Yes, the report describes an AI-generated political attack ad depicting dystopian crises.

Directly caused: The RNC created and distributed an attack ad containing AI-generated images of explosions and military deployments to attack a political opponent.

Indirectly caused: N/A

Inferred additional harm: The release of this ad likely encourages other political campaigns to generate similar synthetic attack ads, potentially increasing the volume of toxic political content.

Democracy

Reported: Yes, the report describes concerns about AI-generated deepfakes spreading political misinformation and blurring the lines of regular campaigning.

Directly caused: The RNC used synthetic media to depict fictional national crises in an official campaign ad, challenging traditional standards of political campaign integrity.

Indirectly caused: The incident highlights a lack of clear platform policies for political figures using AI, potentially eroding trust in democratic processes and election information.

Inferred additional harm: Widespread adoption of synthetic campaign ads by political actors could severely degrade public trust in election campaigns and democratic institutions.

Epistemic

Reported: Yes, the report notes experts warning that AI-generated deepfakes could be used to spread political misinformation.

Directly caused: The ad presents synthetic, fabricated images of future events (e.g., military on streets, explosions in Taiwan) that viewers might mistake for real photographs.

Indirectly caused: N/A

Inferred additional harm: The normalization of AI-generated imagery in political campaigns could lead to a broader erosion of shared truth, where citizens struggle to distinguish real political events from fabricated ones.

People affected

• Occurrences reported: 1
• People reportedly harmed: 1

Potential causes

Management

• RNC Adoption of AI Ads: Political organization chose to deploy AI-generated imagery for campaign ads.
• Platform Policy Ambiguity: Meta refused to clarify if AI-misleading rules apply to politicians.

Technology

• Permissive Content Filters: AI tools allowed creation of generic images depicting political crises.
• Inconspicuous AI Disclaimers: Small disclaimers make it easy for viewers to mistake AI images for reality.

Human Factors

• Viewer Misinterpretation: Viewers might mistake AI-generated pictures for real photographs.
• Politician Deception Risk: Politicians utilizing deepfakes and AI tools to spread misinformation.

Process and Methods

• Inadequate Platform Moderation: Social media platforms struggle to filter or regulate political AI content.
• Lack of Tool Usage Transparency: Unclear which AI tools were used and if terms of service were violated.

Regulatory Environment

• Politician Fact-Checking Exemptions: Meta exempts politicians from standard fact-checking rules on its platforms.
• Absence of AI Ad Regulations: No clear regulatory framework governing AI-generated political advertisements.

Information quality

• Classification confidence: High
• Reason for confidence: The report clearly details the creator (RNC), the target (Biden), the medium (YouTube ad), and the nature of the AI-generated content (stylistic images of future crises). There is little ambiguity about what occurred, though the specific AI tool used is unknown.
• Ambiguities identified: The specific AI image generation software used to create the ad is not identified.

The Republican National Committee released the first fully AI-generated political attack ad by a major US political organization, depicting fictional future crises. While raising concerns about the normalization of deepfakes and epistemic confusion in elections, the inclusion of a disclaimer and its domestic political nature limit its direct national security impact to a minor level.

• Overall national security impact: Minor
• Response level: Moderate
• Scope: Single nation
• Primary target: United States
• Alleged perpetrator: Republican National Committee

Threat characteristics

• Imminence: Long-term. Represents an ongoing strategic concern regarding the normalization of synthetic media in political campaigning rather than an active crisis.
• Autonomy: Human-controlled. The AI tools were used to generate specific visual assets under direct human prompt, control, and assembly.
• Novelty: First-of-its-kind. This represents the first fully AI-generated political campaign advertisement released by a major US political organization.

Impact by dimension

• Physical security: Negligible. No physical systems, critical infrastructure, or human safety elements were targeted or affected by the synthetic political advertisement.
• Information security: Minor. Involves the use of AI-generated deepfakes targeting political leadership, but the inclusion of a disclaimer and domestic origin limits its national security impact to a minor level.
• Sovereignty: Minor. The incident attempts to influence the US electorate using synthetic media, but does not disrupt core electoral systems, government decision-making, or constitutional processes.
• Economic security: Negligible. No impact on financial systems, strategic technologies, or economic stability was reported in connection with this incident.
• Societal stability: Minor. The use of synthetic media in political campaigns could contribute to public polarization and epistemic confusion, but remains a minor domestic political issue.