Deepfake Video of Ron DeSantis Dropping Out of 2024 Presidential Race Circulating

In early September 2023, a deepfake video created by C3PMeme circulated on social media, showing Ron DeSantis falsely claiming he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race. DeSantis did not actually suspend his campaign until January 21, 2024.

Risk classification

• Primary risk domain: 4 Malicious actors
• Primary risk subdomain: 4.1 Disinformation, surveillance, and influence at scale

The deepfake video was created and distributed on social media to influence public opinion and manipulate political processes during the 2024 US Presidential Election.

Additional risk subdomains

• 3.1 False or misleading information: The AI-generated video fabricated a false concession speech by Ron DeSantis, directly spreading misleading information to voters.

Causal factors

• Entity: Human
• Intent: Intentional
• Timing: Post-deployment

The deepfake video was intentionally created and posted by a human creator (C3PMeme) using deployed AI generation tools post-deployment.

EU AI Act risk tier

• Risk tier: 3 Limited Risk

Limited Risk: The report describes AI-generated content (a deepfake), which under the EU AI Act falls under Limited Risk, requiring transparency obligations to ensure users are aware the content is synthetic.

AI system and alleged parties

• AI system: None named
• AI purpose: Deepfake Video Generation; Voice Generation
• Behaviour type: Tool
• Alleged developer: Unknown deepfake technology developers
• Alleged deployer: C3PMeme
• Alleged harmed parties: Ron DeSantis's presidential campaign, Ron DeSantis

Harm severity

Severity ratings are based on this scale.

Highest direct severity in any category: Minor. Severity is scored from Negligible to Catastrophic in each harm category, for harm the reports describe as caused directly or indirectly by the AI system.

• Physical: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Infrastructure: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Property: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Financial: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Environmental: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Malicious content: direct Minor, indirect Minor
• Differential treatment: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Civil rights: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Democracy: direct Minor, indirect Minor
• Privacy: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Psychological: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible
• Epistemic: direct Minor, indirect Substantial
• Child sexual exploitation and abuse: direct Negligible, indirect Negligible

Malicious content

Reported: The report describes the creation and spread of a deepfake video designed to mislead voters.

Directly caused: A synthetic deepfake video of Ron DeSantis falsely announcing his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race was created and posted on YouTube and X.

Indirectly caused: The spread of the video sparked debates and distractions from substantive political issues on social media platforms.

Inferred additional harm: It is likely that similar deepfakes will continue to be generated and spread, further polluting the online information ecosystem during the election cycle.

Democracy

Reported: The report explicitly discusses how deepfakes threaten to derail campaigns, distract from real issues, and make it hard for actual clips of bad behavior to be believed.

Directly caused: The deepfake video disrupted the 2024 presidential campaign by spreading false information about a candidate dropping out.

Indirectly caused: The incident contributes to a broader erosion of trust in democratic elections, where candidates can dismiss real evidence as fakes and voters struggle to discern truth.

Inferred additional harm: Continued use of such political deepfakes could severely undermine public trust in democratic processes and election integrity.

Epistemic

Reported: The report describes the generation of false information that could fool Americans and make the truth meaningless.

Directly caused: The AI-generated video fabricated a concession speech by Ron DeSantis, creating a false narrative.

Indirectly caused: The incident threatens to make the truth meaningless as candidates can now dismiss real clips of bad behavior as fakes.

Inferred additional harm: Widespread proliferation of such synthetic media could lead to a complete loss of shared consensus reality among the electorate.

People affected

• Occurrences reported: 1
• People reportedly harmed: 1
• People reportedly exposed: 10000

Potential causes

Management

• Platform Unwillingness to Moderate: Social media platforms lack the interest or will to curtail disinformation.
• Lack of Platform Capacity: Platforms do not dedicate enough resources or capability to stop deepfakes.

Technology

• Readily Available Deepfake Tools: Tools to produce synthetic video and audio are easily accessible to anyone.
• Lack of Detection Tools: There are insufficient technical tools to counter and detect deepfakes.

Human Factors

• Fractured Political Climate: Audiences are highly polarized and ready to believe fake negative news.
• Desire to Build Buzz: Creators and consultants share fakes to generate attention and disarray.

Process and Methods

• Campaigns Embracing Fakes: Political campaigns use AI-manipulated media, normalizing its use.

Information quality

• Classification confidence: High
• Reason for confidence: The report clearly details the specific incident of the DeSantis deepfake, its creator, the platforms it was shared on, and the broader implications for the 2024 election. There is minimal ambiguity regarding the events.
• Ambiguities identified: The specific AI model or software used to generate the deepfake is not identified in the report.
• Alternative interpretations: None. The incident is clearly a political deepfake intended for satire or political commentary.

A satirical deepfake video of Governor Ron DeSantis falsely announcing his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race circulated on social media. While quickly debunked, the incident highlights the evolving capability of synthetic media to inject disinformation into democratic processes, though this specific event posed a minor, manageable threat to national security.

• Overall national security impact: Minor
• Scope: Single nation
• Primary target: United States
• Alleged perpetrator: C3PMeme

Threat characteristics

• Imminence: Long-term. The incident represents an ongoing strategic concern regarding synthetic media in political campaigns rather than an imminent national security crisis.
• Autonomy: Human-controlled. The generative AI tools were directly operated by a human creator who generated, edited, and posted the content.
• Novelty: Established threat. Deepfakes of political figures are an established threat vector with numerous previous occurrences in political communication.

Impact by dimension

• Physical security: Negligible. No threats to physical systems, critical infrastructure, or human safety were reported in this incident.
• Information security: Minor. Represents a minor information warfare concern as a deepfake targeting a political candidate, but it was quickly debunked and created by a local satirist rather than a hostile foreign intelligence service.
• Sovereignty: Minor. Minor potential impact on democratic processes through false depictions of a presidential candidate, but rapid debunking prevented substantial disruption to electoral functions.
• Economic security: Negligible. No strategic technology theft, critical supply chain vulnerabilities, or financial system manipulation occurred.
• Societal stability: Minor. Contributes to the long-term erosion of epistemic trust and shared reality, but did not cause immediate civil unrest or systematic rights violations.